8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jun 2004

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/08/2004

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Main Features
About this Release

See also Information Paper: Changes to the Retail Trade Series released on 2 August 2004.

JUNE KEY FIGURES

		Jun 04	May 04 to Jun 04
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,177.2	0.7
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,334.5	2.1

		Jun Qtr 04	Mar Qtr 04 to Jun Qtr 04
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	47,734.8	1.3
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	47,808.8	1.8

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change

Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates

Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimate - percentage change

JUNE KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.7% in June 2004. This follows revised increases of 0.6% in May and April.
The trend estimate increased in all states and territories. The largest increases were in Northern Territory (+1.5%) followed by New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia (all +0.9%).
Over the three months to June 2004 the trend estimate increased by $299m. Food retailing (+$131m), Hospitality and services (+$56m) and Department stores (+$41m) had the largest increases.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series grew at a strong rate (+2.1%) in June 2004. This followed moderate revised growth of 0.6% in May 2004.
All industries and all states and territories recorded growth of over 0.9%, with the strongest growth in Department stores. The Family Tax Benefit bonus was paid in June 2004.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover fell by 0.2% in June 2004 compared with May 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) rose by 0.6%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled unit) fell by -1.3%.
Australian turnover increased by 10.3% in June 2004 compared with June 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 9.3%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 11.6%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover rose by 1.3% in the June quarter 2004. This follows an increase of 1.6% in the March quarter 2004. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure rose by 1.8% in the June quarter 2004.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue. These data incorporate a new base year, 2002-03, which has resulted in revisions to quarterly growth rates, small in most cases, for 2002-03 and 2003-04. In addition, the chain volume data have been re-referenced to 2002-03, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. This has resulted in revisions to levels, but not growth rates, for all periods.

INFORMATION PAPER

An Information Paper 'Changes to the Retail Trade series' is available on the ABS Website (see www.abs.gov.au). The paper explains changes that will be introduced with the July 2004 issue. To access this paper go to the website, press the publication link then go to 8501.0.

DEPARTMENT STORES

Historically, Department stores in Australia have had end-of-financial year clearance sales which result in increased turnover for the month of July. In recent years, these sales have commenced earlier and have resulted in high seasonally adjusted June figures released for the last two years (2002 and 2003). Now that the earlier sales have been observed for three consecutive years, the seasonal adjustment process can more accurately measure the magnitude of the impact and reduce any distortion in seasonally adjusted estimates for June and July. Accordingly, a correction has been made to the seasonal factors for Department stores at the Australia and state level from 2002 and a proportional correction has also been made in the Australia and state total level seasonally adjusted series.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend estimate has had moderate growth for the last five months. With strong seasonally adjusted growth in June 2004, Department stores have had strong trend growth in the last four months. Clothing and soft good retailing had strong growth in the last three months. Food retailing continued to have moderate growth and Household good retailing weak growth.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for the last 16 months. Western Australia and the Northern Territory had strong trend growth over the last four months. All the other states and territories recorded moderate growth in June 2004.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been strong trend growth for the last four months due to strong seasonally adjusted growth in June 2004. In June 2004, New South Wales, Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory had strong trend growth.

Graph: Industry trends - Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate to strong growth in the trend estimate over the last four months. All states and territories except Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory recorded strong trend growth over this period. Western Australia has been in decline over this period.

Graph: Industry trends - Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

The rate of growth in the trend estimate has been declining since June 2003, with weak growth for the last seven months. In the last four months, strong trend growth in Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory has been offset by falls in Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

Graph: Industry trends - Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth was moderate in May and June 2004 after five months of being weak or in decline. In June 2004, Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory continued their strong trend growth, Victoria and Western Australia were in decline for the fourth consecutive month and the Australian Capital Territory for the ninth consecutive month.

Graph: Industry trends - Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend growth has been weak to moderate for the last three months following four months of being in decline. Queensland has had strong trend growth in the last four months and Western Australia has had moderate growth in May and June 2004 after six months of strong growth. Victoria, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory continued to be in decline but New South Wales had moderate growth in June 2004 after being in decline from November 2003 to April 2004.

Graph: Industry trends - Other retailing

TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services)

There was moderate trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) in June 2004. The rate of trend growth has been similar to that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last six months.

Graph: Industry trends - Total retail (excluding Hospitality and Services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

In June 2004, there was strong trend growth after mostly moderate growth in the previous six months. In June 2004, strong growth continued in New South Wales, South Australia, Western Australia and Tasmania. The Australian Capital Territory had strong growth in June 2004 after being in decline from August 2003 to March 2004. Queensland continued to be in decline.

Graph: industry graphs - Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There was strong trend growth in June 2004. The main contributors to this growth were Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services. Food retailing maintained moderate growth. Household retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing all had moderate trend growth in June 2004 after having been in decline for the majority of previous eight months.

VICTORIA

Trend growth was weak in June 2004, continuing the slowing of growth evident since November 2003. The only industry with strong growth in the last three months was Clothing and soft good retailing. Growth in Food retailing has been moderate in the last three months after strong growth in the preceding four months. In the last four months, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline.

QUEENSLAND

Trend growth was strong in May and June 2004. Over the last four months all industries except Food retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong trend growth. In this period Hospitality and services has been in decline.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend growth remained moderate in June 2004. There was continuing strong growth in Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services. Clothing and soft good retailing had strong trend growth in the last three months while Household good retailing and Other retailing continued to be in decline. In June 2004, Food retailing and Department stores recorded moderate growth.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Trend growth has been strong over the last four months. The falls in this period in Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing were offset by the strong growth in Food retailing, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services, and moderate trend growth in Department stores and Other retailing.

TASMANIA

The trend growth has been moderate for the last three months. Over this period, Hospitality and services and Recreational good retailing have had strong trend growth and Food retailing has had moderate growth. Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing were in decline.